Originally written for Crime in America. Republished with permission.
Why are Americans so fearful if crime rates are declining per the FBI and independent analysts? If crime is down, why are tough-on-crime initiatives growing? Can anyone explain this?
I read articles about declining crime in cities. Mayors, police chiefs, and violence interrupters are celebrating and taking credit. Per my national and state media relations background, if I were in their shoes, I would too.
I've read articles about Gallup's finding that fear of crime is at record highs and, according to several national media sources, Americans are being delusional (clueless?) because crime is declining. Per Gallup, 40 percent are afraid to walk alone at night near home, the highest in three decades, 34 percent avoided driving into certain areas of their town or city, 31 percent refrained from visiting central areas of nearby cities, and 31 percent avoided walking, jogging, or running alone in their area.
The criminological community has consistently stated that fear of crime is a complex issue; people judge their safety based on an array of things that have nothing to do with crime statistics. It could be signs of disorder, like young people hanging out in the neighborhood, graffiti, trash, or the run-down nature of communities. Nevertheless, that fear exists. Why?
Do National Crime Statistics Provide Guidance?
There are two primary sources of national crime data, and both offer different conclusions about crime. We have the FBI stating that crimes reported to law enforcement are down, and violence decreased by three percent in their last official national report. For the first six months of 2024, the FBI reported that violent crime decreased by 10.3 percent.
The problem is that the overwhelming majority of what we call crime isn't reported to the police.
Then we have the National Crime Victimization Survey conducted by the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, stating that there are record increases in rates of violence. Independent analysts state that the increase is 44 percent for the last official reports.
Then we have private groups studying crime statistics from publicly available data from city police departments, indicating that crime is down considerably in urban areas.
This Needs Context
We have just exited years of considerable growth in crime in cities with a 50 percent increase in homicides and a 36 percent increase in aggravated assaults per the Major Cities Chiefs Association (2019-2022). If there are decreases, it could be nothing more than a statistical readjustment referred to by researchers as a regression to the mean. Crime rises and falls for reasons we find hard (impossible?) to explain.
But crimes reported to law enforcement (most aren't) and National Crime Victimization Survey data collect two different kinds of crime data, reported and unreported. If the great majority of crime is unreported, surveys are going to collect all criminal events, generating far higher numbers than FBI data. It's why the NCVS is called the "nation's primary source of information on criminal victimization" by the US Census Bureau.
Yes, reported crime is down per the FBI and groups analyzing local crime statistics. But that doesn't mean that actual crime decreased. It doesn't mean that fear or concern about crime decreased. It doesn't mean that those concerned about crime are wrong.
Fear–The Houston Chronicle
Around 77% of Houston survey-takers say they are staying home more at night to avoid crime, and 51% said they'd moved homes in search of a safer neighborhood, according to the results of a new poll by a nonprofit organization studying how those living in the country's biggest cities perceive crime.
While worrying about crime, a slight majority of the same Houston residents polled, around 54%, were either very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the service from the Houston Police Department, records show.
Houston in 2024 saw significant decreases in property crime and a decline in homicides, though violent crime ticked up about 5%. If property crime (approximately 80 percent of overall crime) is down, then overall crime decreases, yet the data suggests considerable fear or concern about crime.
There's other data stating that crime is the primary reason for moving.
National Survey On Perceptions Of Crime
The Hill (newspaper of Congress): Despite ample confusion over crime statistics, a new national poll finds that most Americans believe crime has increased over the last few years. The poll also shows how fear of crime is changing the way Americans live.
According to the nonpartisan survey, 62 percent of Americans believe crime is now a bigger problem than it was a few years ago. Only 15 percent say it's a smaller problem.
The poll was based on a representative national sample of 2,000 U.S. adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percent.
The poll finds that a strong majority of Americans (73 percent) say crime is affecting how they live their lives. This includes 81 percent of Hispanics, 80 percent of Blacks, 74 percent of women, 71 percent of men, and 69 percent of whites.
Overall, 86 percent of Americans say they're now more careful than they were a few years ago about avoiding places that may not be safe. In addition, 75 percent say they've avoided taking trips to certain places with high crime rates, and 67 percent say they're staying home more at night to avoid the risk of crime.
More than one-third of Americans polled say they have moved to a safer town or neighborhood because of these concerns — and of those who haven't moved for that reason, an additional 18 percent say they have thought about doing so. This helps explain why a solid 73 percent of survey respondents perceive their local community as safe, although many of them had to pick up stakes to find that sense of safety.
In line with this, 70 percent of Americans say they worry about crime.
Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong. Is It Similar To Perceptions Of Crime?
Federal statistics are routinely corrected and can be wrong. Multiple media articles suggested that voters are worrying about nothing when it comes to crime.
Politico: Before the presidential election, many Democrats were puzzled by the seeming disconnect between 'economic reality' as reflected in various government statistics and the public's perceptions of the economy on the ground.
Many in Washington bristled at the public's failure to register how strong the economy really was. They charged that right-wing echo chambers were conning voters into believing entirely preposterous narratives about America's decline.
What they rarely considered was whether something else might be responsible for the disconnect — whether, for instance, government statistics were fundamentally flawed (emphasis added). What if the numbers supporting the case for broad-based prosperity were themselves misrepresentations? What if, in fact, darker assessments of the economy were more authentically tethered to reality?
What we uncovered shocked us. The bottom line is that, for 20 years or more, including the months prior to the election, voter perception was more reflective of reality (emphasis added) than the incumbent statistics. Our research revealed that the data collected by the various agencies is largely accurate. Moreover, the people staffing those agencies are talented and well-intentioned.
But the filters used to compute the headline statistics are flawed. As a result, they paint a much rosier picture of reality than bears out on the ground" (emphasis added).
Question
Per Politico, does painting "a much rosier picture of reality than bears out on the ground" apply to using reported crime statistics rather than National Crime Victimization Survey data?
Conclusions
First, there is no doubt that FBI and analyst data indicate decreasing reported crime, while understanding that the overwhelming majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the National Crime Victimization Survey.
Second, the National Crime Victimization Survey indicated record increases in rates of all violent crime in their last official report. For decades, final-official reports from the USDOJ were the benchmark for crime in America.
Third, fear of crime remains a significant concern for Americans
Recent media coverage provides some context:
According to Vox, 2024 cemented the tough-on-crime comeback,
Per the Associated Press, A tough-on-crime approach is back in US state capitols,
Per Newsweek: Democratic strategist James Carville, "We got beyond it," he said. "But the image stuck in people's minds that the Democrats wanted to defund the police, wanted to empty prisons...it created a sense of dishonor,"
Per The Sacramento Bee: Californians passed Prop. 36 by 70% (Editor's note: an attempt to increase certain crimes to felonies) after a successful bipartisan campaign effort among city mayors and county prosecutors. Even the state's most powerful Democrats — Newsom and Harris included — refused to campaign vocally against Prop. 36, despite, in Newsom's case, saying he "can't in good conscience support it." Pre-election polls showed that crime was a driving force for Californians across the political spectrum as they filled out their ballots – and it's a force upon which the Trump campaign was eager to capitalize. "Make America Safe Again" became a common refrain in Trump rallies.....
Per Politico: Anger over 'street chaos' fuels ouster of another blue-city mayor. London Breed is about to join a growing club: Democratic mayors who've been ousted by voters fed up with their cities' post-pandemic struggles.
Does all of this suggest a country where crime or fear is decreasing?
I have come to understand the power and politics of crime statistics. I have also encountered multiple people in the justice system who believe that the most important crime statistic is fear of crime.
Does it really matter if we trust one national crime index more than the other? But if you are surrounded by fear, regardless of the rationality, you will be fearful too, and collectively, that has major impacts for schools, economies, jobs, and prosperity.
Does all of this indicate to you that crime is decreasing in the hearts and minds of most Americans?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice's clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the "McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime" national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.
Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of "Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization" available at Amazon and additional bookstores.
Crime in America.Net-"Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear."
